10/5/2025
Investing: Build an Edge You Can Explain
From vague theses to measurable hypotheses you can debug.
Edges decay when they are vibes. Write them like hypotheses: input, mechanism, and measurement.
A crisp template
- Input: "When rates fall by ≥50 bps over 3 months..."
- Mechanism: "...duration‑heavy assets rerate faster than cash‑flow constrained peers..."
- Measurement: "...proxied by X beating Y by Z% within T weeks."
Which part measures if the thesis worked?
Keep charts boring
One clean line beats a heatmap you can't recall. Here's a toy series you might use to sketch performance vs. benchmark.
Action items
- Rewrite your top thesis with the template.
- Define failure conditions you will respect.
- Schedule a monthly post‑mortem to prune dead edges.